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Submitted by einmaleins on Sat, 06/28/2008 - 12:14am.
After an interesting conversation with another business owner this afternoon, (who doesn't share my view on the development of downtown) I had a thought... What are the underlying issues with the Triway development on the isthmus? Yes, there is the view and the history and there is the luxury condo-problem and the tax breaks, ... But, I have a view questions floating around in my head I would like to get some answers from you Olybloggers: Is downtown good the way it is? Should it stay the way it is? Do we need change? Do we mean by change development? Does development mean more housing? If housing, where and who could build it? So, if you followed me so far, let's get down another few questions: How much does it cost to build a multiple story building in downtown. Who could take on a project like that, finance it, fund it, etc. Are all developers evil? If so, who else could build a project like that? Let's find a solution to those answers and we can come up with a masterplan of how we want Olympia to look like in 10 years - hey, it's Olyblog2018?!?!? And, then write a "buisness plan" of how we can achieve that. That's what I did when I wanted to open my business: Answer all the questions I could think off, write the answers down, answer more questions and write them down and before you know it, you got a working business model. If we could create some synergy (gotta love that word!), perhaps we could shop the idea to a view developers around town/state and see what they say and perhaps we can come up with an alternative plan/solution for downtown. Usually it's much easier to convince people that they should consider your voice, if you have a plan... So, with those words I shall leave you for the night to ponder...
cheers, mathias einmaleins
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I had a friend who lived in
Submitted by rainy gray on Thu, 06/26/2008 - 11:34pm.questions & answers
Submitted by chad360 on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 8:06am.Mathias, nice rumination and sharing about your decision-making process, I'll take a shot at this-
Is downtown good the way it is?
Not in my opinion: there is too much auto traffic downtown (stop & go..."let's waste more gas shall we!?"), little or no wildlife corridor planning.
Should it stay the way it is?
Should? Ideally no, but do we have an option if we are not owners? (owners can make decisions, and everyone else just has opinions)
Do we need change? Do we mean by change development?
Change is not necessarily a great idea just for the sake of it (i.e.:Convention Center in Tacoma), so I think the point is to evaluate the design and acknowledge impacts & benefits. As for "development", I assume you are talking about the real estate market and venture capital driving development...seems like this kind of change is the norm as compared to government directed change (i.e.: interstate road system).
Does development mean more housing? If housing, where and who could build it?
There are so many ways to implement housing...I prefer nonprofit development & urban land trusts for housing. Humans should be stewards not owners.
So, if you followed me so far, let's get down another few questions: OK
How much does it cost to build a multiple story building in downtown.
...probably more than $100 per square foot, but I dunno...there are costs that increase above a certain height.
Who could take on a project like that, finance it, fund it, etc.
Any group that has enough money and a good credit rating.
Are all developers evil?
Silly rabbit, of course not, but then again, "yes"...and what I mean is that some developers are evil for pushing bad design just to increase the profit margin.
If so, who else could build a project like that?
Besides developers? Army Corp of Engineers, WSDOT, large mechanical & technical firms, regional planners, Habitat for Humanity...what I'd like to see is a community design organization that follows an open-source model and focuses on green technologies for living.
For me it is not about development, it is about costs and design...does the design stand on it's own?
...and the business plan, does it only work with subsidies?
Mixing developer-lobbied projects that amount to little more than "design experiments" (at the tax payers expense) with current & future tax breaks is short-sighted...
...and inflates the tax rate for others (just to offset the costs faced by developers).
Whereas good design sells itself (think about bicycles, the Prius, Linux... good design sells itself...and in the case of Linux, the design is so good that folks make the time to learn the system, albeit arcane and geeky that it is =).
Where is the Linux-like housing in Olympia? Where is the green bungalows?
Where is the building code that requires LEED certified design?
I'm intrigued by the idea of a community-based development group...like an action committee.
If things don't break loose for the better in Olympia, I'm gonna move elsewhere...
...I'm pretty disgusted with the US scene, and there are plenty of places I could live and be just as happy (I try to remember that the real worth is in people and human capital , so I guess this is my 2cents).
thanks for the detailed response...
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 10:40am.I'd love the idea to push for LEED certification.
And I think you make a great comparison by bringing up Linux and Prius, as much as I'm a Mac guy.
So, are there any large scale, not single family homes - housing projects somewhere in the US/world we could draw comparison from or would that be a "first"?
I love "firsts', but for that we need to really dig our heels in and create something that truly doesn't exist - which is exciting, but as sometimes there's a reason why something doesn't exist - it doesn't work?!?
mathias
einmaleins
Larida Passage is not an economic silver bullet
Submitted by jlw on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 11:58am.Misunderstanding
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 12:39pm.I as a business owner don't "need" this Triway development.
I general I welcome it, just like I was welcomed into the community.
I am more fascinated with the process of such public/political/charged things and, also never before, find myself with a great interest in the possibility to not just complain but find a way of shaping the "future" of this town. Not out of economic reasons, but out of community reasons.
I have a 3 year old son and a second Kid on the way. We would love to live in downtown, because we love downtown.
No, we couldn't afford the 1mio condos, but perhaps that would be a start and catalyst for more diverse development? Yes, that's a long shot, but that's why I'm trying to come up with a game plan of figuring out, if there's a developer that would do it right the first time.
mathias
einmaleins
PS: JWL - if you love knives - come back to the store on Thursday July 3rd - we'll be having our First Friday on Thursday with Chris Hyde from Worldknives.com. He'll be bringing a large selection of really cool knives down to the store.
Thanks for the heads up!
Submitted by jlw on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 2:33pm.Friday is Thursday!
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 2:41pm.mathias
einmaleins
Thanks again!
Submitted by jlw on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 3:17pm.not in the store...
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 3:28pm.... I do have a live at home, you know...
mathias
einmaleins
there is a Venture Brothers joke here...
Submitted by chad360 on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 4:52pm....I can so hear Phantom Limb's line, "Shop-keep!, the Lady would like to inspect the Wusthofs..."
gawd, I >heart< the whole VB scene (damn fine cartoon)
A few numbers
Submitted by Thad Curtz on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 9:10pm.From the staff's analysis of Triway's application in the Draft SEIS
Economic Analysis of Development Potential
Interviews with developers and contractors were conducted in Oregon and Washington to determine current construction costs for mixed-use development. These developers and contractors have experience in similar markets to the proposed Olympia rezone area. They suggested that wood frame construction hard costs currently range from $170 - $180 per sq. ft. Steel and concrete hard construction costs range from $200 - $225 per sq. ft.
In each case 35 percent of hard costs need to be added to cover soft costs (e.g., design and engineering, permits, etc). Given these construction costs, the developers estimated that it would be necessary to sell condo units at around $500 per sq. ft., in order to generate sufficient development profit. There may be demand for units at that price, assuming quality development that creates a vibrant space that people want to be in, as well as a more general market conditions for condo units at the higher-end of the price spectrum. However, this demand can be considered relatively shallow under current market conditions, and would be fulfilled relatively quickly.
Commercial (office and retail) rent for the proposed development in Olympia is likely to be in the range of $25 to $30. This rent is probably achievable, based on comparable projects in similar markets and the rents currently achieved in nearby developments in Olympia, such as the Marketplace development adjacent to the Olympia Farmer's Market.
But there are a huge number of variables... They also say:
Economic Feasibility
Project feasibility is assessed by analyzing various factors and market interest is preliminary at this stage. More information will be needed to make more thorough conclusions. Below are some assumptions and limitations as they relate to individual project feasibility:
Triway's project is not typical, though. Its share of the calculated residential space for the whole rezone request is 235,000 square feet. Divided into 141 condos that's roughly 1,600 square feet each. Staff say in the draft SEIS that in "interviews with developers and experts in similar markets in Oregon and Washington, it was determined that an average housing unit size in similar markets with comparable locational amenities" was 850 square feet, about half as big. (They used that size for the traffic estimates and similar calculations, not Triway's design concept numbers.) 1,600 square feet times $500 a square foot is $800,000, too, so Triway's current plans are for more expensive units than average, as well.
Shifting topic a little
Somebody recently told me that the costs of paying for your financing while you're trying to finish the project in the estimated time and then sell the housing after it's finished are a large source of risk, and that some developers have explored CSA-like arrangements, in which a group of buyers essentially contract to work with the developer from the beginning and buy the housing afterwards, shifting significant risk from the builder to themselves and significantly reducing the builder's financing costs.
Housing
Submitted by Nicki on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 10:34am.alright then...
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 10:44am.... don't you think, this is slowly starting to sound a little stale.
...pipedreams, NIMBY, we want housing but not this, not there, nothing will work, woe is me, doomsday.
This thread is exactly the attempt to step beyond that and try to come up with something tangible.
Are you a developer, can you see your ideas/demands make sense/make money?
Or are you a charitable organisation with too much money?
If so, dream big and turn Olympia into the dreamscape you're talking about and everybody wins.
mathias
einmaleins
Considering the divisiveness about developing the isthmus
Submitted by Guglielmo on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 11:02am.Totally agree with you!
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 11:07am.But, how easy would it be, to make a case for the preserving of the isthmus as a park. If we would have a developer who would be willing to develop somewhere else.
I'm not a developer, I'm a business owner and I need to make decisions that put bread on my families table.
If we can find someone that actually develops, that builds multiple housing units and they would put a proposal on the table as a serious alternative.
It would be a no-brainer to turn Triway down and go with him.
But as it stands we have either TRIWAY or nothin'!
And that's really not a good place to be in, no is it??
mathias
einmaleins
I don't know why it is "Triway or nothin'"
Submitted by Guglielmo on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 12:05pm."pre-existing relationships with council members"
Submitted by Rob Richards on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 12:26pm.Boo
Submitted by Ehver Green on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 12:56pm.It's getting shallow...
C'mon, everyone knows how campaign contributions work. Are you telling me if Meta had won she wouldn't be allowed to advocate for her donors? Just because it's a developer in this case we shouldn't assume the worst. Of course, some will, and they will lose sight of the actual goal. Go for it.
To suggest Triway has an advantage is correct. But not because of campaign contributions. The project started long before our last city council election. The reason is because he's on top of his game and actually has an original idea that is viable. Truly viable. Nowhere else have I seen that. Not FotW, not a park, nothing.
So, it's not Triway or nothing. It's whoever steps up to make a real honest-to-god effort.
exactly!
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 12:59pm.mathias
einmaleins
That's assuming it's all due only to the initiative of Triway
Submitted by Guglielmo on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 1:13pm.well... who has the guts??
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 1:21pm....
I think given the fact that during the housing boom over the last decade, that pretty much completely transformed Seattle and Portland, downtown Olympia hasn't seen a single new building, I ask myself why that is?
If we realized that Triway is the only serious offer over the past years, we either take it because we are desperate - and that we are.
Or we come up with a better idea, because downtown needs housing, serioulsy.
Oh, wait unless we want downtown to be a business district only.
What I'm getting at is: Saying yes to Triway is not jumping at the first possiblity.
Saying yes to Triway is accepting the difficulties that developers seem to have here in downtown Olympia.
Or, perhaps Olympia is a hidden gem, that people haven't discovered, than I'm all for making it discoverable - let's invite some other developers into the conversation and see if someone can come up with a better plan.
mathias
einmaleins
No...
Submitted by chad360 on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 1:33pm....I'm of the mind that it would be better to form a local, "non-profit/at-cost" development group (relying on a private developer or the city is a mistake in my opinion).
We need 2-4 people that are serious and can commit "full-time"...
...get into the development process with the CP&D during business hours and hold after-work design/brainstorm/info-sharing sessions
Folks take time for the PBIA and such, so manifest something that creates results, and go for it!
well... who has the guts??
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 1:40pm....
I'm working on it... cheeeeze...
Am willing to try to make something like that happen.
But the overall costs of something like that intimidate me a little.
I can run a little Euro-store, but something like that is a lot, and I mean A LOT bigger.
But hey, why not!
mathias
einmaleins
We have had plan after plan,
Submitted by wilson on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 5:21pm.this is definitely
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 5:26pm.one way to look at this.
And, considering that I don't have the money, time or expertise to determine if there might be a better plan,let's do it.
Unless we can get Vulcan....
mathias
einmaleins
So, how much does Oly stand to gain?
Submitted by chad360 on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 5:46pm.Well OK, let's look at the benefits of going the "Triway"...>grin<
Yes, what are these benefits?
...any thoughts?
(...and "Yes Mathias, we can look at the benefits if Vulcan would give Oly a neck-pinch as well" =)
...but yeah, let's get these benefits out on the table and examine them one-by-one, and then maybe we'll look at the "buzz-kills" in a like manner, but let's start with the benefits of Triway (and maybe Vulcan).
i was
Submitted by einmaleins on Sat, 06/28/2008 - 9:10am.I was working on a list of benefits and realized that already this is so subjective and open to interpretation. A benefit to me, might be a "buzz-kill" for some.
For example:
The development could be the end of Lakefair - good or bad?
There are some layout limitations on this forum - should we put this piece into a new post?
mathias
einmaleins
I don't disagree. Pursuing
Submitted by Ehver Green on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 2:02pm.I don't disagree. Pursuing that vacuum in parallel, not a small feat, is the way to go. As an argument it falls on deaf ears without any recourse to plug the hole.
We've seen the idea of public financing on Olyblog a few times in recent months. Maybe it's time to bring that topic up again now that there's a real catalyst to drive support.
Catalyst...yep.
Submitted by Guglielmo on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 2:17pm.I wasn't suggesting anything.
Submitted by Rob Richards on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 2:36pm.I think a candidate gets money from people who support that candidate. A big developer is going to support the pro development candidate, plain and simple. If the candidate wins, then so does the developer, because the candidate is going to support the developer doing business. I don't think (maybe this is naive and wishful thinking) that there's any quid pro quo going on, in that I don't think developers are paying off council candidates, but I think it's also naive to believe that the developers donation is not an investment they expect to get a return on.
but isn't all donation...
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 2:46pm..... and investment of sort?
I'm just playing devils advocate here. But if I donate to to Obama or to Bread and Roses it's an investment. It could be an emotional investment or it could be connected with a hope that, in case of Obama, he changes Washington for the better.... you know what I'm saying.
mathias
einmaleins
Absolutely,
Submitted by Rob Richards on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 3:09pm.I think it's a little different when it comes to political donations. We donate to campaigns because we support the platform and want it implemented. Developers have supported (with 1000's of $$) local candidates. I think those donations are for a different reason than typical, small donations. Your donation of $20 or even $100 is given because you've listened to the candidate and feel good about them. I think a developer considers more factors before making a donation, there's potentially a lot more on the line for them in terms of profit. This is why all the hubbub around PACs and special interests on the national level. They have the power to get "their candidates" elected, it's not so different locally. Certain candidates in Olympia could raise substantial sums of money, and have in the past, very quickly and easily. That makes it harder for the average person to run for office, and also makes a lot people feel unrepresented and disconnected from local government. This is why we need public campaign financing in Olympia.
that's true...
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 3:37pm.... that's alway something that's funny.
Not better candidate wins, but the one with the most money?!?
This is sad. Obama will win the election because he was able to raise more money - not because he's the better candidate...
explain to me in three words: public campaign financing/!?
mathias
einmaleins
Government Funded Campaigns
Submitted by Ehver Green on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 3:56pm.But you need a little more, I'd think. Try here. Short read. Goal is to level the playing field for all potential candidates (you and me) and with equal wallets from the start.
Lots of recent news on Obama and public financing.
I can't do it in three words,
Submitted by Rob Richards on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 3:53pm.If you want to run for the city council, and agree to follow by a certain set of rules, you would get, say, $20,000 to run with. That money would come from a fund established by the city. It's the same idea as what we've be hearing about lately in the presidential elections (Obama turned it down, McCain accepted it), except A LOT less money.
I chose the number $20,000 because I think that's about the amount a candidate would need to run a competitive campaign in Olympia.
cool, thanks.
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 3:58pm.Got it.
By leveling the playing field everyone has to work within the parameters of the monye given to them. Seems like a good idea.
So, Obama rejected it, because he didn't need the money. Whould it have been better for him to turn down individual donations entirely and just use the public money?
I know it's slightly off-topic, but very educational, thanks everyone!
mathias
einmaleins
Not exactly.
Submitted by Rob Richards on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 4:07pm.As far as Obama, I think it depends on what you mean by "better". Would it have looked better in the eyes of some if he'd taken the public money like every other presidential candidate has since they started it in 70's? Maybe. Does he have a better chance of being elected if he has $200 million to spend as opposed to the $85 million you get from public financing? Probably.
right now...
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 12:42pm.mathias
einmaleins
Triway is not the only housing project
Submitted by Laurian on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 2:58pm.As a matter of fact it's probably the least promising what with that issue of getting designer zoning being opposed by 2/3rd of the community and all.
There is new housing being built. Colpitts (sp?) is permitted to build 120 units. There is what looks like a four to six unit building going up on Puget street. There is also unoccupied housing. Capital Terrace Condos on Legion and Eastside has a sign out front. My building has three apartments currently available. I agree there is a need for new housing downtown but the situation may not be as dire as some paint it.
The other side of the issues of viabilty of downtown businesses is lease rates and availibility. I remember reading some stuff around the time Otto's closing became public that there was a 15% strorefront vacancy rate. At the same time lease rates were rising, not declining as micro economics would suggest should be the case. The reasons for this might be better addressed by someone with more knowledge of the ins and outs of business real estate than I.
If one looks to the south one will see a pair of cranes erecting two new commercial buildings which surely bring more consumers for businesses downtown.
Perhaps smart development is not a Silver Bullet like Larida Passage but a series of minor but significant commercial and housing projects that will benefit everyone while keeping those things that make Olympia such a uniquely wonderful place to live, shop, play and raise the Next Gen.
I've tossed off a series unresearched ideas. Who out there would like to put together a group to to the reasearch on vacancy rates, market rates etc? PM me and let's get that ball rolling.
i wonder...
Submitted by einmaleins on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 3:38pm.mathias
einmaleins
Mathias, The answer is NO,
Submitted by w1r3d1 on Sun, 06/29/2008 - 10:15am.thought so!
Submitted by einmaleins on Sun, 06/29/2008 - 10:18am.mathias
einmaleins
Here's an opinion from someone already living downtown.
Submitted by Rob Richards on Fri, 06/27/2008 - 4:01pm.better idea...
Submitted by einmaleins on Sat, 06/28/2008 - 12:31pm.I posted a video about civic design in cities around america in a new post.
I felt the need to take one more step back and rather going the route of better/worse to look at it development from an angle of where we want to take Olympia in the next 5-... years.
We're the visionaries and enablers of tomorrow.
mathias
einmaleins
Youth Speaking Truth to Power
Submitted by Robert Whitlock on Wed, 08/06/2008 - 4:29pm.