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Submitted by Mike on Tue, 01/15/2008 - 1:22pm.

Part I - the consensus view was that global warming is happening.

Part II - like pulling teeth to get uber liberals to commit to anything being good or bad, but nobody argued that global warming is good, so I will declare consensus on that one:  global warming is bad, for the status quo, for coast lines, etc.  The discussion re good and back can continue on the Part II thread.

Part III - is the question of what could be causing the planet to warm up. 

Commonly mentioned causes include the following:

  1. Buildup of greenhouse gases
  2. Sunspot or solar system wide warming of some sort
  3. Natural planetary cycles

I think that all three of these causes and maybe more could be causing global warming, but I think that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmospher is far and away the primary cause. If I had to put a percentage on it, I would say that I think 90% or more global warming is caused by buildup of greenhouse gases

I haven't looked for science to support the other causes, but if it's out there and you think it is convincing, shows that the warming on Mars is somehow related to warming of this planet, link to it.  

So, please, let's keep the discussion on this thread to the following:  what do you think is causing global warming and why. Links to science are encouraged. 

For those of you who think this is not going anywhere, is simply encouraging dissension, please be patient.  I have a suggestion/thought/approach about addressing global warming that I think will reduce the warming, will create jobs, and will reduce our dependence on foreign oil, will reduce our need to have wars in the Middle East over oil reserves, but I think that suggestion makes the most sense when it is presented when we start talking about solutions and we are not there yet.    

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Yes, a number of things are probably contributing to

climate change. I do not know how to put a percentage on the total contribution of each. I would like to see some citations for the 90% you propose attributable to greenhouse gases (not arguing, just curious). I think this is really where the rubber hits the road in the latest scientific efforts to understand climate change.
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Another possibility

Is that the electro-magnetic poles are shifting, an event that happens every so often on Earth and we're actually past due for by about 700 years. If that's the case, then the ozone layer will almost completely dissipate during the shift and of course we'll all fry.

image
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I have read a bit about this pole shift thing

and it's pretty amazing.  As you note, I don't think we would want to be around when it happens.  But I am not aware of any connection between the pole shifts and global warming, do you have any links?
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Isn't the salient questions really

how much are greenhouse gases contributing to recent climate change? I mean, we could probably come up with a long list of other factors. But it's your thread buddy.
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Yes, I think that is the salient question, but I want

to leave room for the folks who think it is magnetic poles, or sun spots, or whatever to put their causes out there on an equal footing with greenhouse gases.  I have my opinion, that greenhouse gas buildup is the primary cause of global warming.  I note form the NOAA website: 

solar irradiance is estimated at ~0.09 W/m2 compared to 0.4 W/m2 from well-mixed greenhouse gases.

That suggests maybe 80% greenhouse gases and maybe 20% solar irradiance, but NOAA notes that solar irradiance does not have significant number of datapoints, we may know a lot more about solar irradiance in a couple hundred years.

As to the long list, if you want to list the items you think are causing global warming and link to science that shows some correlation, go ahead.

Finally, as you have posted, the graph showing the ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the historical weather record shows a remarkable correlation between buildup of greenhouse gas and environmental warming.  I think the high level of correlation actually shows cause and effect, not just correlation.  I think if you pump greenhouse gases into the environment, the temperature rises.  

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Mars "Ice" caps are melting much faster than earth's...

stop with all this doom and gloom about mankind's impact on global warming!!! Saying 90% is due to greenhouse gas is propaganda fed to you by Al Gore and a bunch of other corrupt politicians that want to convince you to start paying "Carbon Tax". Just one more way for the Gov't to dip its hands into our pockets!! And then use the money for installing puppet governments or brutal dictators, black ops, illegal wars etc etc etc.

Read this article!!!
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

I'm amazed people openly accept the lies fed to them...actually I'm not...nevermind

We just came out of a mini-ice age 30ish years ago. And we had a much larger one about the time of the black death...these are cycles that have far to much order to them.

After Mt. St. Helens blew up global temperature dropped!
http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/climate_effects.html
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Yes, there are multiple causes of climate change

but the question--how much is caused by greenhouse gases--remains quite relevant.
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Public policy is developed based on modeling

Is it gloom and doom to look at measurable changes in our climate that the climate scientists (not Al Gore) say are critical and engage in public discussion regarding public policy with regard to global warming?  

I don't think so. It's called science, it's called planning. 

Is it gloom and doom for the right wing folks to be concerned about terrorists and engage in public planning?  No, I may not agree with the assumptions and the plan, but it is not gloom and doom, it's planning. 

The question here is what do you think is causing global warming and why?  Are you going with the solar variability issue based on the ice caps melting on Mars?  It's a story that has some logical framework and I appreciate that part of the Mars story.

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I tend to agree with eregular,

as time goes on we learn more potential causes for the warming.  And I think there is an underlying, separate, reason for the push towards a fast change in lifestyles.

The whole "it's man cause, and we need to change our lives now", smells a lot like the same song by those who want to change the world, redistribute wealth, etc.  And it is too chicken little for me to buy into it.     

So what is causing the warming?  We don't know for sure.  It could be one thing or multiple things.  Given the fact that other planetary bodies in this solar system are experiencing warming as well, I think the sun is a very likely, if not the primary cause of our global warming.

 

 

“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will

»

From the NOAA site regarding sun cycles and global warming:

Can the observed changes be explained by natural variability, including changes in solar output?

Since our entire climate system is fundamentally driven by energy from the sun, it stands to reason that if the sun's energy output were to change, then so would the climate. Since the advent of space-borne measurements in the late 1970s, solar output has indeed been shown to vary. There appears to be confirmation of earlier suggestions of an 11 (and 22) year cycle of irradiance. With only 20 years of reliable measurements however, it is difficult to deduce a trend. But, from the short record we have so far, the trend in solar irradiance is estimated at ~0.09 W/m2 compared to 0.4 W/m2 from well-mixed greenhouse gases. There are many indications that the sun also has a longer-term variation which has potentially contributed to the century-scale forcing to a greater degree. There is though, a great deal of uncertainty in estimates of solar irradiance beyond what can be measured by satellites, and still the contribution of direct solar irradiance forcing is small compared to the greenhouse gas component. However, our understanding of the indirect effects of changes in solar output and feedbacks in the climate system is minimal. There is much need to refine our understanding of key natural forcing mechanisms of the climate, including solar irradiance changes, in order to reduce uncertainty in our projections of future climate change.

In addition to changes in energy from the sun itself, the Earth's position and orientation relative to the sun (our orbit) also varies slightly, thereby bringing us closer and further away from the sun in predictable cycles (called Milankovitch cycles). Variations in these cycles are believed to be the cause of Earth's ice-ages (glacials). Particularly important for the development of glacials is the radiation receipt at high northern latitudes. Diminishing radiation at these latitudes during the summer months would have enabled winter snow and ice cover to persist throughout the year, eventually leading to a permanent snow- or icepack. While Milankovitch cycles have tremendous value as a theory to explain ice-ages and long-term changes in the climate, they are unlikely to have very much impact on the decade-century timescale. Over several centuries, it may be possible to observe the effect of these orbital parameters, however for the prediction of climate change in the 21st century, these changes will be far less important than radiative forcing from greenhouse gases.

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Redistribute the wealth?

You mean like the way we are redistributing the wealth of future generations to us?
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The article in National Geographic...

...says that it's just one scientist who believes the sun is causing increased warming on earth, and that his theory is weak:

"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.

"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report." (Related: "Global Warming 'Very Likely' Caused by Humans, World Climate Experts Say" [February 2, 2007].)

Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations."


> It's OK to be nice. <
enpen's social contract
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magnetohydrodynamics

World scientists solved this field equation when I was in school (89-05), and I believe that a strong correlation was made between polar ice caps and strong mag field. When there is less ice caps then the mag field wanders, and vice versa...loosely coupled at best, but backed up by a ton of data from lava at Steen's Mt. in OR.

Not sure if there is a direct connection, just thought I'd add-- There is a bunch of books about this at TESC incl a great report by a French team about mag pole shifts (also strong evidence of Earth mag field connected to Sol's field).

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Very interesting.

Thanks for posting about the magnetohydrodynamics. I am slightly familiar with the Steens Mt data that records the rather wild magnetic pole swings.  A magnetic pole swing is hard to put a smiley face on and I had not previously heard there was any correlation between the magnetic poles and the mass of the ice caps. 
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