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Submitted by stevenl on Wed, 01/30/2008 - 9:53pm.

I was talking with OlyBlogger Ogre Mage today and in the course of the conversation we came up with a weird, but not entirely unrealistic scenario for Iraq's future.

First, here's the precedent. When I was in high school, back when Richard Milhous Nixon was in office, the highly unpopular Vietnam War was continuing to drag on. The military recruiters really had their jobs cut out for them. So, what happened was this: when a young man got into any kind of legal trouble the judge would give him a choice-- serve time or serve your country. Several of my high school classmates went into uniform this way.

So, today. The Bushites are having trouble keeping up the troop numbers in the places where we went in to destroy all those weapons of mass destruction that didn't exist. But now we are stuck. In an extension of the 1970s "nudge from the judge," we place massive numbers of convicts in uniform and send them to Iraq and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, legitimate troops are sent home to finally be with their families and perhaps help in domestic disasters like Katrina, which is where they should've been in the first place helping to avoid the kind of total Bush Administration failure and incompetency we witnessed.

At first, it seems to work. Professional soldiers at home really helping real Americans in need (what a concept!) and out in Iraq, disposable American convicts running around with powerful weapons shooting at disposable Iraqis. And when everyone is dead, we can march in under a flag of democracy and claim all the oil in the name of Anglo-Americanism. Sounds sweet, if you are a sweaty-palmed corpulent neo-con in an air-conditioned office who sees the outside world through venetian blinds only when you separate the slats in order to peek out there.

However.

The American convicts have a different idea, and through leadership and organization they take over Iraq and Afghanistan-- apart from U.S. control. And they have sovereignty over the oil, America's biggest drug.

And here we have the makings of a good novel. Or so Ogre Mage and I thought.

What happens next?

 

 

 

 

»

First

They need to win the hearts and minds of the locals.  It may work in Afghanistan, they have a warlord culture.  I'm not sure they could stop the infighting in Iraq though...  I like the idea though, I really do.  Could make a great speculative story.  Maybe all of Olyblog could colaberate on this one?

And has anyone read Snowcrash by Neal Stephenson or Freehold by Michael Z. Williamson?

Let's start with Afghanistan.  Let's say a large enough group of GI's, say 1000 them make an arangement with a local faction and revolt.  Let's then say the US response is to fight back, but say 10% of GI's are deserting for a period of time.  The Afghanis have whatever weapons they have, and the GI's whatever they took.  Let's say the revolt is total enough to force the US out (say the general public demands it) What's next?  What about the level of dissatisfaction at home that allows for the first successful mutiny in the history of the US Army?  What is happening here?  Riots? Suppression by the National Guard and Army?  Armed revolt?

And is anyone familiar with the French Mutiny of 1917?  This will provide some framework for what is proposed.  

Like I say, fun idea! 

 

One loves to posess arms, though they hope to never have occassion for them.

Thomas Jefferson to George Washington 1796

»

Frankenstein's monster

There are over 2 million state and federal prisoners. This is a force to be reckoned with. In this fictional account, the takeover of Iraq and Afghanistan by this massive number of convicts, led by a strong leader, could even spill over into Iran. 2 million! 2 million! We created a new Frankenstein's monster.
»

Very interesting

It's very "escape from NY/LA", snake pliskin'ish. I would copyright this asap before some hollywood flunky see's it and becomes the next big action flick.

On a sidenote, the other night I was watching Rambo III (it takes place in afghanistan) and a quote from a US officer to a commanding Russian officer (they were taking over afghanistan) was, "Welcome to your own Vietnam." and I literally got the shivers. As someone who lived during that era Steven, how does that quote sit for you?

»

"Welcome to your own Vietnam."

Kissinger was fairly fond of saying that the U.S. needed to embroil the U.S.S.R. in it's own Vietnam. I imagine that line is lifted directly from him.

»

We pretty much financed

the U.S.S.R.'s Vietnam.
»

Absolutely

I just hadn't thought about that...and then I started thinking about Iraq. After reading this post it just reinforced it and made me feel like I wasn't the only chicken-little out there.
»

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