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Submitted by JT on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 8:17am.
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Maybe someone can reformat this
Submitted by JT on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 8:20am.it doesn't take up half the page.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
Founded and unfounded?
Submitted by Anonymously Larry on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 8:24am.Can you clarify that for me, JT?
Sure Larry,
Submitted by JT on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 9:00am.Unfounded means it didn’t happen, a false allegation. 80% seems to be pretty close to the annual average forOlympia , at least for the 22 years I have been here. This covers various situations. One example is where the reporting party claims they were raped after returning home late to a boyfriend or husband. The rape report is made to cover their tracks, and isn’t made about a real person (this is the most common type unfounded rape complaint). Another example of an unfounded rape report is when allegations are made after consensual sex, but the reporting party gets angry with the other half, and uses the rape allegation for a vendetta. And there are even those cases where no contact occurred and the whole event is a fabrication meant to harm the person the report is about. There is also the possibility that the crime was reported as a rape, but during further investigation it really was a different crime. The case could be closed unfounded and reopen a case under another category. But generally when a case is changed that way it isn’t closed and reopened, it’s just retitled.
Unfounded doesn’t cover the cases where the reporting party decides they don’t want to prosecute, or become uncooperative with the investigation, etc. It only covers those cases where the allegation is false.
Unfounded is one of many dispositions. Some others are, leads exhausted, referred to other agency, referred to the prosecutor, refused to prosecute, arrest, unable to locate, gone on arrival, etc.
It’s pretty sad these kinds of cases occur and at such a high frequency. It’s obviously bad for the falsely accused and potentially their family. And it is equally bad for real victims of rape when the false reports can cast a bad light on the whole event. Rape victims have a tough enough time without having a shadow of suspicion cast upon their situation, created by individuals and their selfish motivations.
I would like to know how many of the rapes listed were stranger rapes versus the cases where the victim knows the suspect. My guess is we only had a couple of those this year. Also, I’m not sure if that number includes children or if it is only for adult victims.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
Isn't it a crime to file a false report?
Submitted by Mike on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 9:41am.Maybe a few people need to be charged with filing a false report in the most egregious and clear-cut cases to send a message to the community regarding the gravity of charging rape if such a thing did not occur.
Interesting information to post, JT.
Maybe
Submitted by rebecca on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 10:23am.You’d better be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that they knowingly filed a false report. If the question is whether sexual relations were consensual or not, it could be pretty hard to prove one way or the other.
I’m also wondering if some of the cases where it turns out to be a different crime could be actually confusion over legal terms, such as sexual assault vs rape.
In cases where someone makes up a rape story as an excuse for being late somewhere, though, I agree there should be consequences. But of course, you have to prove it first.
rebecca,
Submitted by JT on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 10:48am.yes I agree with you, if an investigator is to close a case as unfounded, he/she has to be clear that is what the investigation says. Otherwise, another dispo is required. Usually with the being home late scenario, the whole thing falls apart rather quickly, and the reporting person usually comes clean as to what really happened.
As to a point made by someone else here, charging for false reporting, that does happen. But the prosecutors limit how often that is done, and reserve that for really egregious cases. Cases that a report of an unknown person fabricated in the mind of the reporting party, doesn't really victimize anyone and only wastes time of the investigators. Usually those don't get charged with false reporting. If the false claim affects someone else significantly, then there may be charges.
I don't want this thread to become a rape thread. I included the unfounded piece only because the UCR data is captured with the FBI, so all reported rapes go to them. I didn't want to post we had 26 rapes, and then someone find the FBI says we had 52 rapes, and I get slapped around for not giving accurate data. I should add that the numbers and text came from an internal administrative document.
This thread was for the purpose to give some numbers to the claim the City is a safe place. I would agree, Olympia is a safe City. Although some people that make up the numbers above may not agree.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
Only a snapshot
Submitted by emmettoconnell on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 9:48am.The data seems to support the
Submitted by JT on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 10:14am.opinion that Olympia is a relatively safe city, although not a sleepy little town anymore.
We do have data about crime trends in areas of the city, etc. I don't know if that is to be available to the public or not.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
Daily reports refer to area
Submitted by emmettoconnell on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 10:52am.Would be useful to see thes expressed as
Submitted by Guglielmo on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 10:14am.WOW!
Submitted by Anonymously Larry on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 10:15am.It's a real shame that such a high percentage of people would use a rape claim as a weapon. That makes things very difficult for victims of the crime.
When a person charges another person with
Submitted by Mike on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 12:57pm.rape, it is hard to unring that bell. I think most of us would not want an arrest for rape on our record, even if the complete record of the investigation shows it was unfounded.
JT, any idea how many arrests there were in the cases that later closed as unfounded?
I make no excuses for rapists, but sexual politics and interpersonal relations are difficult enough without branding a person with a rape arrest on a report that turns out to have no foundation.
I guess there are victims, and then there are victims, if you follow.
80%
Submitted by Guglielmo on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 10:56am.That is what the data I shared states,
Submitted by JT on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 11:05am.plus when I did my 4 year stint in detectives I investigated around 10 rapes in that 4 years. I can tell you that of those {approx 10 rapes} only 6 were founded(with a 100% conviction rate), and only one was a stranger rape. Now granted my primary duties were domestic violence cases. But I got a number of non-DV related crimes against persons, to include rapes.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
Not trying to hijack or stir the nest
Submitted by Anonymously Larry on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 11:25am.It would just seem to me, that 118 crimes where there is definite threat of bodily harm versus the total population base, provides even less evidence that a weapon is warranted as protection. It would seem that your chances of other harm would be much higher. I can't endorse a weapon as a solution to arson, burglary, auto theft or auto prowl. On this issue of "arson", I'm suggesting that no one would be there to stop the arsonist, anyway.
I bring this up only as a point of reference to other discussions on Olyblog.
Larry,
Submitted by JT on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 11:49am.you are scaring me. That is what I was hoping for in a discussion.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
1 crime is enough
Submitted by Norm on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 3:20pm.Holy smokes Norm
Submitted by Guglielmo on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 3:47pm.Yep!
Submitted by Norm on Sun, 02/03/2008 - 3:15pm.Sigh...
Submitted by a.future.with.n... on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 11:46am.I think back to the Pedestrian Interference Ordinance and the characterization of Olympia as some kind of crime ridden cesspool where it's unsafe to go downtown anywhere at any time.
I understand that the city council made the PIO permanent after the sunset. I wonder if statistics like these will be used as evidence of victory over the paper tiger.
Crime & the PIO
Submitted by Katherine on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 12:34pm.of course i agree
Submitted by a.future.with.n... on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 12:55pm.of course i agree that downtown is worth improving and making enjoyable. I absolutely couldn't agree more. what i don't understand is how the PIO fits into that. It's a "move along" tool given to the police. they can now use the threat of arrest to essentially herd homeless people off the street, which i'm sure you're aware is a much safer place to be then alone in the woods.
The PIO seems to me an aggressive attempt at physically harming homeless people selectively. It allows for officer discretion when it comes to deciding who to enforce it against. That cute bit about the street signs of business owners was added last minute so the ordinance would barely be legal. If you remember the original language discussed at the town hall meeting, the ordinance wasn't only illegal but unconstitutional. it plainly and clearly discriminated against homeless people. there is no defending or justifying it. it is a disgusting and classist law.
so much can be done with downtown, and frankly all the possibilities really excite me. why then would we back pedal with these types of regressive laws? especially in light of how safe our city is.
I'm putting on my small, locally-owned business hat now...
Submitted by Katherine on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 2:03pm....and I am wondering, what do you think I can do to make the sidewalk in front of my business more approachable? Passing by my business I can see why a lot of people wouldn't want to try to walk through the throngs of kids (homeless or not) to get to my front door. I'm fine asking people to not stand in front of my door, or to allow enough space that other people using the sidewalk can get by. But playing big bad capitalist is exhausting. I work my butt off, am raising two kids to be decent human beings and volunteer in my community. I just want a fair shake, too.
And, on my block at least, the PIO hasn't been enforced or even been threatened to be used on people, so I'm not sure where your assessment of it being an aggressive attempt to physically harm people comes in. I do, however, know several business owners who have been threatened in the name of the PIO.
And this is where I get frustrated. We have a downtown that is vastly made up of locally owned, locally-operated business. We all know the spiel with a dollar being spent locally vs. being spent at a corp. store. A lot of these business people spend time and money to support all the social services in this area, from donating tents and sleeping bags to donating time and services and money.
I have a hard time seeing the middle ground for us all when the litmus test for so many seems to be "Is it good for business? Then it's bad." I would love some help.
I can think
Submitted by a.future.with.n... on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 2:18pm.of several great places to start. Lighting and improving ally ways is one. A youth and teen center downtown is two. Lets see, a day center for homeless adults coupled with counseling and job sourcing (currently these services are spread out and hard to reach), ummmm more downtown park space with cool stuff like nature paths, lots of benches.
a big park with a basketball court around the artesian well, which was Meta Hogans idea. Really the day center and ally way projects seem like the most do-able to me. I imagine lit and muraled ally ways with sweet cobble stones and places to sit acting as pedestrian thorough fairs. If you've ever been to the mission district in San Francisco you'll know what i'm talking about.
A real day center would solve 90% of the problem. the problem being people having no where to go and not the people themselves. As a small business owner you have every right to your customers having free and encouraged access to your store, but the PIO doesn't provide that.
as for it being used, I work at Bread and Roses where I hear stories daily of people being threatened with arrest, most commonly at night when all supportive services are closed (as well as many business, which may explain why you haven't seen much of it's use).
I want to do everything I can to support the growth of local business, but punitive measures like the PIO don't help downtown grow, and actually hurt the people who live there. when i say "physically threaten" it mean it. pneumonia is real. Frost bite is real. people forced from safety into the elements must suffer these effects. the PIO is physically threatening to poor people.
All really great ideas about
Submitted by Katherine on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 2:38pm.All really great ideas about improving downtown, some of which already have a lot of business support behind them, but none of which get to the crux of my dilemma. A "move along tool" is exactly what will give my customers free and encouraged access to my store. What I want to know is what is a good alternative?
The city just finished their homeless census and I haven't seen the results. A couple years back when the PIO was first being floated, the census showed that there were nearly enough beds in the myriad services around town to house the number of homeless, and that was before the men's shelter was opened. I agree with you that keeping services centralized and on buslines is important. But a day center doesn't give people a place to go to at night to be safe, warm and healthy. Having well lit, resurfaced alleys will provide a safer place for people to be at night, mitigating the threat of personal violence and moving them off of store-front pathways. (BTW, I work 'til midnight most nights, so I hear what you're saying about closed services.) Can you see where I'm coming from?
i can
Submitted by a.future.with.n... on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 3:06pm.i can see where you're coming from. nothing short of ending poverty itself will totally solve this problem so all we have to work with is partial answers. that being the case i feel there are destructive and constructive methods. The PIO is a destructive method is what i'm saying i guess.
here's the numbers from last years census
Last year's count found 798 homeless people in Thurston County, up from 672 in 2006.
A separate, more-reliable count in schools in 2006-07 found 741 homeless students, up from 671 in 2005-06.
just to give you an idea, there are about 60 shelter beds at the salvation army, another 15 at the drexel house and about 8 at the out of the woods family shelter. thats around 80-85 beds available during any night for that number of people. during cold weather nights another 20 to 30 beds open up. we're looking at having 130 beds for close to 800 people and thats a VERY conservative estimate. there is no way around calling this what it is. a shelter crisis. thats what makes the PIO that much more damaging.
that said, maybe we should move this to a different thread. it think it's worth getting input on but JT's thread is also worth discussing.
Confuddling numbers...
Submitted by Phil Owen on Sun, 02/03/2008 - 4:08pm....one of the things I didn't know until recently is that residents of transitional housing (supportive housing that requires homelessness for eligibility ie Fleetwood & Drexel) are counted in the Point-in-Time census. Folks at the Housing Authority have worked in the last few years to do a shelter/transition house capacity estimate along side the census, and have usually found that we're "only" somewhere around 150-200 beds short of the need.
There are a few things to keep in mind, though. The first is that, in spite of a well-celebrated 10 Year Plan, homelessness has only increased in the last several years, and is going to continue increasing. (If rent prices ever catch up with mortguage prices, homelessness will explode in ways we haven't seen since the Depression. I may well become one of the folks priced out of housing.)
Secondly, the Point-in-Time count is a minimum estimate. The homeless are notoriously difficult to track, and this is even more so when trying to count the rural homeless. In the hills at the south end of the county, where I grew up, there are scores of people living in tents and lean-to's who aren't getting counted in the survey. It'd be too difficult to get volunteers out over such a broad terrain. We also are not quite reaching the migrant-worker community in our surveys, as most of the social services in Thurston County are not well connected to this community. I think we could safely double the number from the Point-in-Time count if we want a really accurate sense of how many people are experiencing homelessness in our county.
Lastly, as the person who does the monthly shelter report for the Housing Task Force, I am well aware of the fact that many of our shelters are not operating at capacity. We generally determine capacity in terms of beds, but many of the family shelters and transition houses operate on a room/apartment/unit basis, so that if they are sheltering small families they may only be using half the beds. In addition, there are shelters in town with extraordinarily stringent rules and eligibility requirements, so that they will have numerous open beds while the overflow shelters are maxed out.
There is still a great need for shelter in the area.
The Canaanite's Call
Katherine thank you
Submitted by crashnostar on Mon, 02/04/2008 - 1:28pm.OT - Katherine
Submitted by JstPlnOnry on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 6:57pm.If this is the same Katherine the O saw fit to "out" over the whole PBIA delinquency, I just wanted to say kudos to your & your husband for publicly addressing the issue in the comments section with well stated responses to the O's accusations.
None of the other business owners responded or gave any reason at all for their delinquencies but your husband stepped up and said "my fault, I'm sorry." and your response today to the Our Views was exceptional!
I look forward to frequenting your business! Your ethics and morals and love of your city, business and family are phenomenal! Don't let the local tabloid O get you down! Obviously you haven't! My congratulations to you and your husband for being open, honest and for holding your heads up high and being proud!
Thanks
Submitted by Katherine on Mon, 02/04/2008 - 8:36pm.Yup,
Submitted by paisleyboxers on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 12:24pm.Friendblog: None are known to exist since bloggers don't have friends.
Very small...
Submitted by The Original Yoda on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 7:18pm....ain't it the truth.
When your "actions aren't right" it sucks to shop at the co-op.
I'm reminded of the song "Everyody Knows" by Leonard Cohen...
JT
Submitted by stevenl on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 2:06pm.Thanks for the local info. Good stuff. I'm curious about the white collar crime stats. Any stats on that?
stevenl,
Submitted by JT on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 4:15pm.I don't have those for ya, sorry.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
The highest estimate I've run across
Submitted by Guglielmo on Sat, 02/02/2008 - 5:09pm.I am mulling these rape numbers over in my head
Submitted by Mike on Sun, 02/03/2008 - 7:27am.26 founded cases, 80% unfounded, suggests that OPD should have received about 104 rape reports that they closed as unfounded during 2007. JT says he thinks that is about normal with his 22 years experience even though his own cases were in the 60% founded and convicted rate for the relatively small number of cases that JT worked.
This needs more work. I think something is not right here.
Best guess Mike,
Submitted by JT on Sun, 02/03/2008 - 8:07am.the numbers I quoted was only for 4 years in the detectives. But over the course of 22 years, high numbers of false claims. Clearly over 50% wouldn't surprise me. “America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
You're right Mike
Submitted by Guglielmo on Sun, 02/03/2008 - 9:20am.Well I just made email contact with
Submitted by JT on Sun, 02/03/2008 - 2:00pm.our stat guy, and he says the meeting notes are in error on the unfounded rate for rapes for 2007. He said he will get back to me with the correct amount, and I asked for a few additional years to see if the stats are stable year to year.
When Mike did the math and came up with over 100 rapes total for the year, I figured that something was wrong with the data. When I get the corrected figure, I will post.
At this point, I'm guessing all the numbers could be incorrect as the same person took the meeting notes.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
Thanks for checking on this, JT
Submitted by enpen on Sun, 02/03/2008 - 2:23pm.The numbers have been a hot topic at our house. And this is yet another reason I love having OlyBlog.
"In principle, I am an anarchist. Kurt Vonnegut once said he was an agnostic who respects Jesus Christ. I am an anarchist who loves democracy." - Kenzaburo Oe
Ok, here are the corrected numbers,
Submitted by JT on Mon, 02/04/2008 - 9:12am.straight from our data guy, not filtered through the note takers hands like in the earlier document.
2007, 35 reported rapes, 9 unfounded, 26 founded, about 25% unfounded rate.
Unfounded rates a for few years back.
2006: 32%
2005: 29%
2004: 10%
2003: 0%
The rest of the numbers are correct, i.e. murder, vehicle prowl, etc.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
Thanks for the update JT
Submitted by Guglielmo on Mon, 02/04/2008 - 10:24am.Perhaps it's 0% because they didn't track it then?
Submitted by Rob Richards on Mon, 02/04/2008 - 10:31am.Well Gug,
Submitted by JT on Mon, 02/04/2008 - 10:27am.the purpose of my post was to discuss the relative safety of life in Olympia. Unfortunately the discussion has gone off on a tanget. Although, this tanget could even branch off there on to other forms of crime, bias in the application of law, etc.
“America passes the critical gate test. Open the gate and see where people go – in or out. This is still the country people flock to.” George Will
If Gug wasn't such a numbers nerd
Submitted by Rob Richards on Mon, 02/04/2008 - 10:30am.That's right
Submitted by Guglielmo on Mon, 02/04/2008 - 12:45pm.Oh I'm glad you posted the crime numbers.
Submitted by Guglielmo on Mon, 02/04/2008 - 10:52am.